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Breakdown of actual NFL win margins since 2009



This is a breakdown of the actual point differential of every regular season NFL game played since Sept 2009. A positive value is a home win, and a negative value is a road win.

We offer two tables for you to review. The first table is the list of the most likely win scenarios, accounting for more than 54-percent of all NFL games. The second table is the full list of outcomes, order by differential (from a 1-point win to a 59-point win).

What's interesting is just how rare some particular scenarios are. For example, a 9-point road win is only as likely as a 40-point home win!

A 3-point home or road win is the most likely outcome in any particular NFL game, followed by a 7-point home or road win. Intriguingly, a road team is more likely to win by a TD margin than a home team. This may be mitigated, however, by the fact that a home team is more likely to tack on a field goal or a TD to their final margin.


Table representing more than half of all wins




Diff Games Perc
3 110 7.70%
-3 100 7.00%
-7 71 4.97%
7 61 4.27%
10 59 4.13%
6 50 3.50%
14 43 3.01%
4 41 2.87%
-4 39 2.73%
1 35 2.45%
-6 30 2.10%
2 29 2.03%
21 28 1.96%
-8 27 1.89%
-14 27 1.89%
17 27 1.89%


Full table



This table is order by the actual win margin.
Diff Games Perc
1 35 2.45%
-1 21 1.47%
2 29 2.03%
-2 23 1.61%
3 110 7.70%
-3 100 7.00%
4 41 2.87%
-4 39 2.73%
-5 22 1.54%
5 21 1.47%
6 50 3.50%
-6 30 2.10%
-7 71 4.97%
7 61 4.27%
-8 27 1.89%
8 22 1.54%
9 10 0.70%
-9 2 0.14%
10 59 4.13%
-10 26 1.82%
11 14 0.98%
-11 13 0.91%
12 14 0.98%
-12 8 0.56%
-13 21 1.47%
13 20 1.40%
14 43 3.01%
-14 27 1.89%
-15 9 0.63%
15 9 0.63%
-16 15 1.05%
16 15 1.05%
17 27 1.89%
-17 14 0.98%
18 21 1.47%
-18 16 1.12%
19 8 0.56%
-19 6 0.42%
20 21 1.47%
-20 9 0.63%
21 28 1.96%
-21 17 1.19%
-22 8 0.56%
22 7 0.49%
23 11 0.77%
-23 5 0.35%
24 23 1.61%
-24 15 1.05%
25 10 0.70%
-25 7 0.49%
26 11 0.77%
-26 4 0.28%
27 17 1.19%
-27 5 0.35%
28 20 1.40%
-28 9 0.63%
29 6 0.42%
-29 4 0.28%
30 5 0.35%
-30 4 0.28%
31 12 0.84%
-31 8 0.56%
32 5 0.35%
-32 3 0.21%
-33 2 0.14%
-34 7 0.49%
34 2 0.14%
35 6 0.42%
-35 4 0.28%
-36 1 0.07%
37 5 0.35%
38 5 0.35%
-38 3 0.21%
40 2 0.14%
41 3 0.21%
42 3 0.21%
43 1 0.07%
45 3 0.21%
-45 1 0.07%
48 1 0.07%
55 1 0.07%
58 1 0.07%
59 1 0.07%