Better thinking through technology

FBS, Week 4, 2016



Okay, we're now at the stage in the season where data should be getting priced in well enough to expect something from break-even to profitable on the day's bets. It's not quite adventure time, but it's getting close.

As always, the FBS model is seen as significantly riskier than the NFL model. Also, FBS lines frankly don't offer the kind of juice on faves that I tend to like.

Oregon -13+113
I think this line is heavily underpriced. The absolute worst-case I have for the Ducks is a -6 finish, and most scenarios fall into the -20 to -35 range.

Western Kentucky -10+120
I'm comfortable grabbing some value on a two-TD win here. The range for this game should be WKU -3 to -24, with the weight of model falling at WKU -13. It might end up squeaking at the end and pushing if WKU manages to lose a FG somewhere along the way, but I'll take my chance for the juice.

Cincinnati U -20+115
My data indicates there's almost no ceiling on this game is Cincy gets clicking.

Georgia +7-106
If I were feeling super-greedy, I'd grab a small bet on UGA ML.

Utah State ML+137
Utah State is well on its way to being this season's Louisiana-Lafayette, the team the bot just loves.

The bot thinks this line is waaaaaaaaay off. Should be something more like a Utah State -6 at minimum.

West Virginia -7-108
The most likely game this week to push or flatout miss. The hope here is that travel issues for BYU just give them that little extra nudge it takes for the -7 to cover.

UL Lafayette +4+102
My Cajuns have returned to the grace of the bot after a fairly long absence! (If you're new to the bot, ULL was a serious love affair for the bot in the first two seasons.)

Tulane appears to be a bit overrated based on a few more wins recently against weaker opponents, while the Cajuns are being undervalued due to some losses against decent opposition.

It's that weak recent performance that's keeping me of the ULL ML.

Rice -9.5+108
Just an all-around underpriced line. Should be closer to a -13.

Nevada +4.5+102
This one's a tad tricky because of the amount of travel. Nevada should be the better team, but don't be shocked if this ends up like the Friday night Wyoming game, where Nevada take a lead but can't hold it. Fortunately, there's a smidge of room left for that to land on the spread, and that's what I'm hoping for here.

Michigan State -6+124
Underpriced. Should be closer to a -10.

Fresno State +14 -105
The line for Tulsa is too high. I have no version of this game a two-score win for Tulsa, and I have several versions that land as a Fresno St cover.