Better thinking through technology

NFL Saturday games, Week 2, 2016



Not really in love with some of these higher lines, and that makes almost all of the alternate high lines a real stretch. Hopefully one of the juicier +300 type lines lands.
Not feeling the SNF much. The combination of Packers road mediocrity and the Vikes QB situation don't scream for a buy there.


San Diego Chargers -7.5+199 and San Diego Chargers -4+116



Lot of reasons to not like the Jags this week. They're traveling across multiple timezones. Also, their QB is Bortles. I'm largely discounting the Packers game because the Pack always seem to play close road games even as faves against shitty teams.
Rivers, especially at home, is the better QB here. I'd have liked a higher alternate high line on this game, but this was the best I could find at Nitrogen (affiliate link if you wanna be nice and non-affiliate link). QB model says this game should be closer to a -7 @ -105.


Seattle Seahawks -14.5+333 and Seattle Seahawks -6+111



There's not enough data on Keenum to project his style of play against SEA. This is a bit more of a "that guy sucks" pick than I'm usually prone to posting. The -14.5 for +333 appears to be a bit cheap based on the team model, which thinks the high line for this game should be more like a -21.5 for +299 or so.

Obviously some of this line is a product of the historic capacity of the Rams to turn weird tricks against the Seahawks. One does have to wonder, however, how many more times that can land for Jeff Fisher, especially with a QB who just doesn't look to be up to the task.

The bot supports a -6 and sees no problem with grabbing the value on the -14.5.


New England Patriots -6+102



Playing softer than I would with Brady here, but obviously the line would also be higher. Not enough Garoppolo data to form a QB-based opinion. Consequently I'll just take a decent line on the all-around better team and call it a day.


Arizona Cardinals -9+125



This ones a bit of a test of the new Glicko2 rating system. On style of play, the ARI -9 is a questionable choice. On QB play, it's exactly where the game is expected to land. On team and QB Glicko ratings? The Cards should be able to extend their lead a bit.

This is a game with a tricky line. Would've liked it a lot more at a -6. Instead, just grabbing a higher line and hoping for the best.


Detroit Lions -14.5+268 and Detroit Lions -7+116



Every indicator I have screams one-TD win to blowout. The -7 on DET is probably a bit excessive if the lower scenario hits. On Glicko2 ratings, however, the Lions look ready to extend their lead.

As much as this looks like a screaming pick, it's also a little risk-reward. The line itself is tricky. Lots of ways a -7 and a -14.5 can miss by just a point.


Carolina Panthers -13+102 and Carolina Panthers -21.5+318



For all the nice things I said about Gabbert last week, this game is just a big bucket of travel issues. There's a smidge of value on the high alternate line here. The -13 doesn't actually significantly outperform the -21.5 in the models, because this game seems to land as either competitive or a massive blowout.

I'll take the premium on the risk and play higher, hoping for the best. The Glciko2 numbers suggest that outcome.