Better thinking through technology

TNF, Week 3, 2016, HOU@NE



Okay, this is obviously a game that's on the wrong side of some of the protocols I use. In other words, this is a mostly a "play for fun" kinda game. Also, I suspect no one is going to sway the Belichick believers anyhow.

OTOH, I have no intention of trying to sway them.

The entire question in this game is "what do you think NE's 3rd Qb is worth?

Now, I can answer the question of what Garappolo was worth vs Brady. Garappolo cost the Patriots one full TD according to my data. Here's things in this Houston game . . .

Brady vs HOU = -23 outcome

Garappolo vs HOU = -14 outcome

Brissett vs HOU = ???

It's fair to acknowledge here that Tom is a future first-ballot HoFer, so it's not really that insulting to say he's worth a full TD more than Jimmy. The question is what do you think the value drop, if any, is from Jimmy to Jacoby?

Is it a full TD? Alright, fine, so the NE line should be -6, right?

Then you have to flip to the other side of equation. What's Osweiler worth to the Texans? FTR, the data says he was a drag on the Broncos, but the Broncos are a damned good team. A lot of capable, well-compensated QBs would actually be at least a small drag on that team.


Team vs Team



Model 3 ML pick: NE
Spread Pick: NE -1
o/u pick: no play

Exotic spread pick #1: NE -18.5
Exotic spread pick #2: NE -12.5

ML + spread for pop: NE -2 and NE ML

Strongest choice: NE -2
Wins Games Win % Away Pts Away Team Home Team Wins Games Win % Home Pts Diff Gms o/u
0 2.7013 0 15.42531 HOU NE 5.209 5.2087 100 37.02173 -21.60 3.95 52.45
0.014 2.2543 0.62531 17.96657 HOU NE 1.594 2.3004 69.2796 26.05539 -8.09 2.28 44.02
0 0.7021 0 19.87634 HOU NE 2.038 2.0384 100 29.08301 -9.21 1.37 48.96
1.383 2.3116 59.846 20.106 HOU NE 0.418 0.4184 100 20.97915 -0.87 1.36 41.09
1.151 1.1679 98.5791 25.41951 HOU NE 1.198 1.1981 100 23.58111 1.84 1.18 49.00
0 0.644 0 22.90978 HOU NE 0.887 0.8869 100 36.0423 -13.13 0.77 58.95
0.596 0.7968 74.8142 25.70493 HOU NE 0.44 0.6299 69.8012 22.05542 3.65 0.71 47.76
0.182 0.1969 92.2177 19.255 HOU NE 1.141 1.1405 100 21.54835 -2.29 0.67 40.80
0.711 0.7105 100 19.02515 HOU NE 0 0.5224 0 9.5489 9.48 0.62 28.57
0.206 0.2057 100 21.79739 HOU NE 0.555 0.5549 100 20.21403 1.58 0.38 42.01
0.013 0.4824 2.77432 29.08323 HOU NE 0 0.2167 0 35.22257 -6.14 0.35 64.31
4.26 12.17 34.96% 21.51 13.48 15.12 89.18% 25.58 -4.07 13.64 47.08
Total scenarios: 11
Info Quality: Good
Expected Quality of Play: Above Average to Good
Rec'd Bet Size: Small
Team That Dictates Style of Play: NE



Conclusion




There isn't enough data on either QB to build a QB model chart. Osweiler obviously held serve on the road as a Broncos starter against a good QB in Rivers in SD and great one in Roethlisberger in PIT.

I said earlier that I have nothing to really contribute to this conversation. You're either a Belichick believer or you're not. I'm largely a believer. I think, even with QB3 on the chopping block, the Texans are still in for a test going to NE. This is obviously why they paid Osweiler the big bucks, and they're going to learn very soon what they're actually getting for their money.

The higher lines on the Patriots feel a little ridiculous. I built the tables for Brady and Garappolo, and they support those higher lines. Unless you absolutely believe Brissett is going to lay an egg, trip over himself, throw dumb INTs and just fumble the ball away every other snap, there appears to be some meat left between the NE -1 and NE -6.

I've had a lot of luck playing young QBs so far this season, and there's little evidence to suggest I should completely skip this game. Instead I'm going to take the NE -2, play small, and just enjoy the action. I might poke around with something a little higher, but mostly I'm regretting not grabbing that ML when it was cheaper earlier in the week.